WAC 0-3 in 2011 Bowls

Last night USM beat a fairly decent Nevada Wolfpack team to send the WAC to 0-3 for the bowl season. LA. Tech gave TCU all they could handle the other night but came up short and Utah State let one slip away against Ohio earlier in the bowl season. It is quite possible that the WAC is the weakest link in D1 ball. I do believe the Sun Belt and MAC are tougher conferences.

WAC 0-2 At This Point

The Mountain West finally got a victory under their belt with TCU's hard fought victory over the LA. Tech Bulldogs. It looked for while like TCU was not up to par. Perhaps they just didn't want to be there? They did find a way to win though. They are by far the better team but Louisiana Tech has nothing to be ashamed of. TCU is probably every bit as good as say a Stanford or Clemson.

There was some speculation that Dykes was under consideration for the Houston job but it appears he (says) he is with Louisiana Tech for the long haul. We will see.

Tonight is the MAACO Bowl (of Las Vegas) and we will get to see one of the better teams in the land playing 6-6 Arizona State. The television folk were trying to play this one up. That is their job sure, but for us fans this a ho hum game to say the least. Boise got ripped off in the grand scheme of things but that is nothing unusual. Most likely the only way for ASU to hang tough would be if the Bronco players just don't show up enough to give effort. I am sure they don't really want to be there but I think that the coaching staff and seniors will not allow any "drop off" in play.

Next year the Bronco's will be in a "BCS" conference. OF course with the departures from that league it is now no more of a power than CUSA (assuming it ever was). I have heard it called "Mountain West East" a time or two. There is some truth to that.

By the way, thus far I am not doing real well in Bowl predictions. There is time to step up though. Like TCU, perhaps I just didn't want to "be there" with the early games.

Western Athletic Confernce

Predicting the winner of this conference is easy. The Blue Field Broncs are the team to beat and it is very very difficult for a WAC team accomplish this feat. It is difficult for a top tier BCS team to do so also. The 2nd tier is a little more difficult to figure with some pretty good teams in the mix. This group would be fairly to very competitive in CUSA. The last tier teams are on the same level as perhaps the Sun Belt and perhaps one or two would not even be real competitive in a good IAA league. This phenomena gives the conference a black eye and other than Boise State and perhaps Fresno State and  Hawaii (in good years) it is not considered worth following. Some football "purists" will insist that even Boise State does not deserve a shot at the BCS "National Championship" simply because of league affiliation. That argument disregards the fact that the Broncs in particular tend to clean the clock of top tier BCS squads and the Bulldogs tend to keep such games very very close. That being said let us move on to the predictions.

1. Boise State: This squad should again win the WAC hands down and indeed run the table. It would be an anomaly if one of the their WAC opponents sneak up on them. For the Broncos to have a shot at the "National Championship" game or indeed any other BCS Bowl they will need to win all of their games, both conference and non-conference. The only team that seems like they may be able to spoil this run are the Hokies of VA. Tech.

2. Fresno State: The second tier as noted earlier is much harder to predict. Pat Hill has the experience and this season the non conference schedule is a bit lighter than in years past. They do meet Ole Miss and Cincinnati, but should have a decent shot at knocking off at least one of them. Pick the Bulldogs for the second spot and a decent post season bowl.

3. Nevada: Some publications pick the Wolfpack of being the only squad with a decent shot of taking down the Broncs. I don't think so. I will pick Nevada to finish in the third slot with a shot at a decent bowl game. Their non conference schedule is fairly tough with a trip to BYU and hosting the Golden Bears of CA. The remaining non conference schedule is manageable.

4. Idaho: Idaho for the fourth spot? Yes. The Vandals had a very surprising season last year and I think that coach Akey will field a competitive team, They do have a sure loss at Nebraska early in the season and a tough game with Western Michigan but the rest of the non conference schedule is manageable. They have a top notch QB in Nathan Enderle and may well again qualify for a bowl game.

5. Louisiana Tech: A new coach with a new system. Coach Dykes will attempt to move his squad into the top tier of the WAC in what may (or may not be) one of the last seasons in this conference. It is pretty tough to win consistently at Tech but they may find a way to go bowling this year.

6. Hawaii: If June Jones was still here I would probably put these guys in the number two or three spot in the conference. Jones has gone onto SMU, where he will be successful, and the Warrior program has suffered since his departure. The Warriors may surprise me and move up in the standings but it is hard to see how at this point. The good news is that their non conference schedule is manageable and their opener with USC will tell a lot. If they stay competitive in this game then they may well get a huge confidence boost which might be enough to propel them to a bowl game.

7.. Utah State: The Aggies will not be able to stay in the top tier of teams. They appear to have some talent, but will probably have a tough time winning any of their non conference games. The one bright spot appears to be against IAA Idaho State but a victory here is not a given.

8.. San Jose State: Mike MacIntyre takes over the helm at this hard luck football school. I am really surprised that they have not dropped the program but they still are out there trying every week. They definitely have some "payday" sure loss games in their non conference schedule that will result in losses. They will not be able to compete with Bama, Wisconsin and Utah. It is not a given that they will be victorious over their two IAA opponents also. They may be so beat up that by the time they get to the WAC schedule, they may not have much left in the tank.

9. New Mexico State: This group of Aggies appear to not have the firepower to compete successfully in the WAC. It is hard to win here to be sure but they may be able to pull out two or three WAC victories. The non conference schedule is not horribly difficult and they may possibly surprise someone. Their best chance may be against UTEP or the rivalry game with the Lobos.

This conference appears to be in transition with Boise State, Fresno and Nevada making the move to the MWC. There is talk of Louisiana Tech looking around for a new home also. To survive in D1 they may need to raid the IAA ranks or perhaps even consider moving down a notch into IAA. Time will tell.

More Changes On The Way

It appears that there are going to be more changes out west in the college game. It has been reported that Fresno State and Nevada have joined the Blue Field Boys and will be taking their act to the MWC. That certainly leaves the WAC in a precarious position, at least with their football programs. Strangely, BYU is apparently going to bolt for the WAC in all sports but football and play the gridiron game as an independent. Are they prima donnas like Notre Dame? It appears so. There has also been speculation that UTEP will move to the WAC and that Louisiana Tech will leave the WAC for CUSA. The Louisiana Tech move would make sense from a geographical standpoint. It would probably be better for them to join the Sun Belt and perhaps even apply for membership into the Big Twelve. Probably those that manage the Tech program may believe that they are somewhat a cut above the Sun Belt, and it is honestly doubtful that the Big Twelve would show much interest. With Colorado and Nebraska leaving the Big Twelve I would look for an invite to be given to TCU and perhaps the University of Houston. Both are quality programs with TCU being a legitimate BCS Bowl contender and UH aspiring to be. UTEP moving to the WAC? Not sure if that is a good idea. It is hard to win in El Paso to be sure and the Miners would probably find they would be more competitive in the Western Athletic. But will the WAC even exists in couple of years? Most likely the WAC will find some way to survive as a Division I football conference as kind of a western version of the Sun Belt. They may look to bring a school or two up from IAA. Northern Arizona, Idaho State and perhaps one of the Cal State schools may be a good fit. I would not discount Montana being interested. It is a quality IAA program and quite often fields a team that might find itself in the top 25 (or pretty darn close) if they were in Division I.
I will wager that in three years that there will be a vast amount of shifting in the conference ranks. Wonder where all that will lead?
You might notice that I do not use the terms BCS and FCS to designate the two major divisions of the NCAA football ranks. I much prefer to use the old Division I and Division IAA.